Numberstruck/

Probabilitree

Probability of getting exactly 2 purple when picking 5 from 20 objects (8 purple, 12 grey)

39.7317%

6160 favorable out of 15504 total outcomes

Object Pool

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Purple: 8
Grey: 12

Combinations Breakdown

Choose 2 purple from 8

C(8, 2) = 28

12345678
+13 more

Choose 3 grey from 12

C(12, 3) = 220

123
124
125
126
127
128
129
1210
1211
1212
134
135
136
137
138

... and 205 more

Favorable outcomes = 28 × 220 =6160

Total Outcome Space

With 20 objects and picking 5, there are 15504 possible outcomes. (Too many to visualize individually)

Formula

Step 1: Ways to choose purple

Step 2: Ways to choose grey

Step 3: Favorable outcomes

Step 4: Total outcomes

Step 5: Probability

Probability is at its heart a ratio of desired outcomes to all possible outcomes. This tool helps you visualise just that. Say you had a pool of objects — some grey, some purple — and you were to randomly draw 5 objects from it wanting exactly 2 purple, you should be able to see above all the scenarios in which your selections could play out.

Probability is best understood through the lens of combinatorics — a branch of maths that has to do with permutations and combinations — because this way you account for every possible scenario (both desired and total).

Personally, I understood this first through the famous handshake problem, which asks: how many handshakes are possible among a group of n persons where no two persons shake hands with each other more than once? This is the basis for "selections". That's part of the reason why I've visualised selecting the purple objects by arranging them in a circle. It's akin to asking - how many connections exist between any n points in the circle.